Supply concerns driven by China’s production cap, smelter shutdowns and tariff-pressure impacts on exports have pushed the three-month LME aluminium contract above USD 3,015.50/t, a level not seen in over three years. alcircle

Summary :

Market intelligence projects a global deficit of around 2 million tonnes in 2026, sending the aluminium prices to an average of USD 2,900 per tonne. The price may further uptick if global industrial activity picks up creating more demand for aluminium in the market. However, the production growth is unlikely to keep pace with demand as China nears its cap and energy crises still loom in many parts of the world limiting production. Although Indonesia is adding new primary aluminium capacities of 705,000 tonnes, raising total output to 1.4 million tonnes, yet this expansion is unlikely to offset the deficit or bring a global balance until later 2026.

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