The global aluminium price stayed robust this week as supply constraints continued to tighten available stocks and support prices. According to a weekly industry report, LME aluminium averaged around USD 3,176/t this week, strengthening mid-week above USD 3,200/t before closing slightly lower, while LME stocks declined to approx. 491,965 t on 16 Jan 2026.
👉 Source: BigMint aluminium market report — https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/aluminium-market-firms-up-w-o-w-on-inventory-drawdowns-supply-constraints-715472?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Summary :

Aluminium prices rose w-o-w as supply-side tightness outweighed mixed demand signals. Market sentiment was underpinned by China’s strict enforcement of its 45-mnt smelting capacity cap, which constrained incremental supply even as domestic consumption showed signs of improvement. A sharp y-o-y decline in Chinese exports further tightened global availability, while delays and rising costs in overseas capacity additions–particularly in Indonesia–added to supply-side concerns.

Reflecting these conditions, the premium for aluminium shipments to Japan for January-March 2026 was set at $195/t, up 127% q-o-q and marking the first quarterly increase in a year. The sharp rise reflects tight global supply, production disruptions, and higher overseas premiums, according to market participants involved in the negotiations. Aluminium premiums in Japan are expected to remain elevated in Q2CY’26, supported by ongoing smelter outages, tight global inventories, and firm LME prices. While domestic demand remains moderate, sustained overseas market pressures are likely to keep premiums supported, with upcoming negotiations closely watched by both buyers and producers.

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