Summary: The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has pushed London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices past $3,400 per metric tonne. Analysts warn that a month-long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could result in a global deficit of up to 2.29 million tonnes. Major Gulf producers, accounting for 9% of global output, are already seeing capacity curtailments due to raw material (alumina) shipment delays and logistical constraints.

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