Alumina prices expected to decline in October – 11 October 2025
As supply remains in surplus, alumina prices likely to drop further, easing input cost pressures for aluminium producers.
👉 Source: Metal.com / SMM
Summary:
According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China’s aluminum industry in September 2025 was 16,186 yuan/mt, down 1.5% MoM and 6.4% YoY, mainly due to the decline in the average monthly alumina price and lower costs during the period. Data from SMM shows that the monthly average of the SMM Alumina Index in September was 3,113 yuan/mt (August 26–September 25), and the weighted average alumina cost for the national aluminum industry fell 4.3% MoM. The average SMM A00 spot price was about 20,772 yuan/mt (August 26–September 25), with the average profit in the domestic aluminum industry at approximately 4,586 yuan/mt.
By the end of September 2025, domestic operating aluminum capacity reached 44.05 million mt, with the lowest full cost at about 13,540 yuan/mt and the highest full cost at around 19,657 yuan/mt. If calculated using monthly average prices, 100% of the operating aluminum capacity in China was profitable in September.
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