Recent analysis by SMM highlights that aluminium prices have reached a three-year high this year amid tight supply, geopolitical shifts, growing demand for “green aluminium”, and structural supply constraints. The report suggests 2026 may be marked by high volatility as energy transition, trade policies, and demand-side changes reshape the market.
👉 Source: SMM Analysis / Metal.com

Summary :

The 2025 aluminium price trajectory has already set the tonne for 2026: high volatility and heightened attention. The aluminium market is at a complex turning point. On one hand, geopolitics, energy transition, and trade policies are reshaping cost structures and supply chains. On the other, strong “green demand” and the reality of supply ceilings form the core contradiction driving price swings.

Looking ahead to 2026, aluminium prices may stage a “breakthrough and return” scenario. In the short term, structural supply bottlenecks and policy uncertainty could push prices toward the USD 3,000/tonne psychological level. However, market mechanisms will eventually take hold, and the gradual release of new capacity in Indonesia and elsewhere is expected to rebalance supply. SMM forecasts a “high first, then lower” pattern, with prices ultimately finding equilibrium in the USD 2,700–2,800/tonne range.

Article Link :

https://news.metal.com