Summary:

Driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts affecting major smelters in the UAE and Bahrain, global primary aluminium supply from the Persian Gulf has faced massive disruptions. Prices have soared past $3,750 per tonne, approaching the all-time records seen in 2022. Compounding this, Guinea (the world’s largest bauxite exporter) has implemented strict controls and export quotas starting this June. For extrusion manufacturers, this signals highly volatile primary billet costs and tight near-term availability, as the LME cash-to-three-month premium hits a 19-year high.

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