Tight supply-side fundamentals keep upward pressure on aluminium despite seasonal demand lull – 08 December 2025
Limited capacity additions at smelters and constrained raw-material availability continue to support price stability, even as some markets enter seasonal off-peak demand. Investing.com India+1
Summary :
global primary aluminium production in October edged 0.6% higher year-on-year to 6.294 million tonnes, while stocks at Japan’s key ports dropped 3.6% to 329,100 tonnes. On the demand front, China’s aluminium imports rose 10.4% in October, supported by strong consumption from transportation, construction and packaging sectors, following a 35% surge in September. Exports in July also climbed to 542,000 tonnes. Market forecasts remained mixed, with Goldman Sachs projecting LME prices to ease to $2,350 per tonne in Q4 2026, while ANZ raised its short-term target to $2,900 amid resilient global demand.
Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation, with open interest down 3.98% to 3,280. Support lies at 276.5 and then 274.7, while resistance is placed at 279.8, with a break above likely opening the path toward 281.3
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